June 24, 1860.— Yesterday the Democrats put in nomination two tickets at Baltimore. Douglas and Fitzpatrick were nominated by the Northern wing and Breckinridge and Lane by the Southern. Lincoln and Hamlin, nominated by the Republican party, and Bell and Everett, candidates of the “Union” party, have been in the field several weeks. Four tickets for national offices. This is new in my day. My Republican friends are confident that Lincoln and Hamlin will be elected by the people. I have a good deal of apprehension on the subject. I fear the election will go to the House. Let me cipher. There are three hundred and three electoral votes; one hundred and fifty-two are required for a choice. We may count for Lincoln the States carried by Fremont in 1856— eleven States, one hundred and fourteen electoral votes. Add Minnesota four, one hundred and eighteen certain. Pennsylvania, probably, twenty-seven, Oregon, probably, three — one hundred and forty-eight. Four more votes are necessary to elect him. If California, New Jersey, Illinois, or Indiana should go for Lincoln, the vote of either State added to one hundred and forty-eight would elect. But all the following States should, perhaps, be counted doubtful. I will append my view of the chances.
New Jersey (7), Pennsylvania (27), Oregon (4?), Illinois (II), doubtful, but probably for Lincoln. Their vote added to that of the Fremont States would give Lincoln a total of 167 votes.
Indiana (13), California (4), Missouri (9), Delaware (3), doubtful, but probably for Douglas — 29 votes.
Certain for Bell, Kentucky (12), Tennessee (13), Louisiana (6), Maryland (8). Doubtful, but probably for Bell, Virginia (15), North Carolina ( 10). A total of 64 votes.
Certain for Breckinridge, Alabama (9), Arkansas (4), Florida (3), Georgia (10), Mississippi (7), South Carolina (8), Texas (4). A total of 45 votes.
Lincoln’s chance in New Jersey depends on having a small defection in favor of Bell, and an equal or larger defection from Douglas. The same in other States. That is, Douglas will carry almost the whole Democratic vote in all the Northwestern States I think certain. I estimate the defection from him to Breckinridge as follows: In Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, and Connecticut, three to five thousand each; in Indiana, five to eight thousand; in Pennsylvania, twenty to thirty thousand; in New York, thirty to forty thousand.
On the whole I think Lincoln’s chance the best, but not a moral certainty; that Bell or Breckinridge will be next. All this is on the supposition that Breckinridge will remain a candidate. His withdrawal would change the programme toto cœlo.
